WG5: Sub-daily
In the first phase, an inventory of downscaling methods and validation measures will be carried out. The inventory of elements which should be downscaled in subdaily scale should be done also.
The inventory of downscaling methods will encompass the range of state-of-the-art RCMs, empirical statistical downscaling methods, and MOS methods. Additionally, the inventory will search for new methods based on weather generators, stochastic models and downscaling of PDFs. The inventory will be based on a literature review and the scheme value_downscalinginventory_1.xls approved by VALUE members.
The inventory will encompass also validation measures appropriate for subdaily scale.
The main part of inventory should be finished in September. The first summary of the inventory should be done in Triest, in the second half of September.
In the next step a range of validation measures will be compiled. For this purpose existing validation studies (collected in inventory) will be analysed and limitations will be identified.
In a third step, the actual validation will be carried out. To enable a smooth and objective validation, the chosen measures will be coded as a software package (R, FORTRAN) and guidelines will be compiled. The validation of subdaily elements downscaling precedures will be carried out against the observational benchmark data set.
(year 1-4) Review, validate and improve methods to downscale to sub-daily scales.
- D2: Inventory of downscaling methods, validation studies and gaps of knowledge
- D4: A set of validation measures for the different aspects addressed
- D5: Validation results (publications in international peer-reviewed scientific journals, including a special issue)
- D6: 21st century scenarios for regional climate change in Europe, simulated within existing projects coordinated by VALUE, based on the best performing methods and tailored to specific end user needs
- D7: Tailored guidelines for downscaling scientists and end-users (scientific and non-scientific) on suitable downscaling methods for different purposes